Treasury Yields Fluctuate

Published June 20, 2025

U.S. Treasury yields varied this week as investors reacted to the Federal Reserve’s policy update on interest rates. Yields climbed later in the week as the jobless claims report suggested employers are easing on hirings.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced its latest monetary policy decision following the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. At the meeting, policy makers agreed to hold the benchmark rate steady at a range of between 4.25% to 4.50%. Members signaled that two more rate cuts are expected by the end of 2025.

“The Fed continues to be on high alert for tariff-driven inflation,” said chief investment officer at Ocean Park Asset Management, James St. Aubin. “A healthy labor market is allowing the Fed to remain on hold as the inflation story unfolds.”

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of June 16 at 4.41% and traded as low as 4.35% on Wednesday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 4.90% and traded as low as 4.85% on Wednesday.

On Wednesday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial claims for unemployment were 245,000 for the week ending June 14. This was down 5,000 from the prior week and beat analysts’ expectations of 250,000. Continuing unemployment claims decreased by 6,000 to 1.956 million.

“We believe firms have been ‘hoarding’ workers to ensure that they do not lay off skilled and trained workers by mistake, especially with the labor market still very close to full employment,” said chief economist at High Frequency Economics, Carl Weinberg. “With uncertainty still high…companies have remained hesitant about layoffs. That may be changing.”

The 10-year Treasury note yield finished the week of 6/16 at 4.38%, while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 4.90%.