Treasury Yields Fluctuate

Published July 25, 2025

U.S. Treasury yields declined early in the week as investors monitored the latest economic reports. Yields rose at the end of the week as the unemployment data report showed a resilient labor market.

On Monday, the Conference Board reported that its Leading Economic index fell 0.3% in June to 98.8. This marked a decline from May’s reading of 99.1 and came in below economists’ forecast of a 0.2% decline. The decline reflected lingering concerns over tariffs, inflation and broader economic uncertainty, which continue to weigh on consumer sentiment.

“At this point, The Conference Board does not forecast a recession, although economic growth is expected to slow substantially in 2025 compared to 2024,” said senior manager for business cycle indicators at the Conference Board, Justyna Zabinska-La Monica. “Real GDP is projected to grow by 1.6% this year, with the impact of tariffs becoming more apparent in H2 as consumer spending slows due to higher prices.”

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of July 21 at 4.42% and traded as low as 4.33% on Tuesday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 4.99% and traded as low as 4.89% on Tuesday.

On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial claims for unemployment were 217,000 for the week ending July 19. This was down 4,000 from the prior week and fell below analysts’ expectations of 227,000. Continuing unemployment claims increased by 4,000 to 1.96 million.

“At the moment, the labor market is holding up with financial markets holding their breath,” said chief economist at FWDBONDS, Christopher Rupkey. "The weekly jobless claims give Fed officials no cover whatsoever if they are seriously thinking of cutting interest rates at next week's meeting."

The 10-year Treasury note yield finished the week of 7/21 at 4.40%, while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 4.93%.